Fantasy Golf Picks-2022 Waste Management Phoenix Open
Value plays for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, which tees off Thursday, February 10
It’s the week of the Super Bowl, which means the PGA Tour is getting ready for its annual trip to TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The Stadium Course has become one of the most iconic on the early-season schedule and always draws raucous crowds, specifically to a memorable finishing stretch highlighted by the par-3 16th home, which is the only fully enclosed hole on the PGA Tour. With capacity increased again this year, look for there to be plenty of excitement at TPC Scottsdale, which draws a solid field again this week.
Since there aren’t any celebrity Pro-Ams and the days are getting longer, we have moved past the portion of the PGA Tour schedule that has tournaments that feature multiple courses. That makes the tournament more watchable and trackable as a whole and gives us more ShotLink data to digest for every round of the tournament. Every round will be played on the same course, so if you like learning the course and following along from round to round, this should be a great week to lock-in and enjoy. The cut is also back to its more typical spot with the top-65 and ties playing the weekend after a Round 2 cut at the end of the day on Friday.
The field includes last year’s winner, Brooks Koepka ($9,400), who won for the second time at this event last year. He isn’t the only two-time champ in the field, though, since FedEx Cup leader and two-time champion Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400) will look to continue his hot start and rekindle the magic in the desert that got him victories in 2016 and 2017. Jon Rahm ($11,600), Viktor Hovland ($10,200) and Patrick Cantlay ($10,700) tee it up as three of the top four in the Official World Golf Rankings coming into the week while Justin Thomas ($11,000), Jordan Spieth ($9,900) and Daniel Berger ($9,200) add further star power to the field.
The course is a Par-71 that places an extreme emphasis on shot-making. Shots Gained: Approach and Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee are both critical since the greens are fast and usually difficult. The Tour is moving away from the Poa greens of the past few weeks to a modified Bermuda hybrid here in Pheonix. While putting is always important, on this track, getting close to the pin usually pays off, so I’m leaning a little more towards shotmakers than top putters in my picks.
On your way to the greens at TPC Scottsdale, there are plenty of hazards to avoid with 68 bunkers, plenty of desert waste areas,and a trio of water hazards that come into play on six holes. For success, golfers will need to take advantage of the par 5’s and the drivable No. 17 which sets up as part of the exciting finish promised by the venue. It has resulted in plenty of late drama over the past several years with playoffs in four of the past six seasons and only two tournaments with a multiple shot margin of victory dating all the way back to 2007.
Here are my picks for what’s always a fun week in the desert with an expanded focus on the value plays between $7,500 and $6,500. If you have questions about these selections, you can find me on Twitter @ZT_Sports and be sure to subscribe to Fantasy 4 for more fantasy golf coverage moving forward.
Top 4 Pay-up Options
Jon Rahm ($11,600)
Hideki Matsuyama ($10,400)
Viktor Hovland ($10,200)
Jordan Spieth ($9,900)
Top 4 Midrange Options
Tony Finau ($8,900)
Adam Scott ($8,500)
Abraham Ancer ($7,900)
Luke List ($7,700)
Top 4 Value Options
Keith Mitchell, $7,500
Over the past six months, Mitchell has looked to be on the verge of breaking through and claiming a second PGA Tour career win to add to his 2019 Honda Classic. He has finished in the top 10 in four events since the 3M Open when he notched a strong fifth-place finish. He was even better with a T3 at The Summit Club for The CJ Cup in the fall but had one bad round that kept him from contending with Rory and Collin Morikawa. In every one of his 12 tournaments with ShotLink data since the 3M Open, Mitchell has gained strokes off the tee, and he managed a T12 at Pebble Beach despite continuing to struggle putting on Poa greens.
Mitchell missed the cut at this tournament last year but finished T16 and gained 2.1 shots putting. If he can rediscover that success on the green, he could definitely surge near the top of the leaderboard if the rest of his game stays on point.
Denny McCarthy, $7,200
McCarthy comes into this event red-hot coming off of top-15 finishes in five of his past six tournaments, including a T12 last week at Pebble Beach and a season-best T6 at The American Express in La Quinta. His putter has been especially locked in, gaining him over 2.5 shots in four of his past five events. He ranks 16th on the PGA TOUR this season in Shots Gained: Putting, so even though it’s not a primary metric for this event, there’s too much upside to overlook.
He’s typically strong around the green and has the length to take advantage of Par 5’s, even though he isn’t one of the longest hitters on the Tour. Last year in Scottsdale, McCarthy missed the cut but had played the weekend in his two previous appearances including a T33 in 2019.
Keegan Bradley, $7,200
If you’re looking for a wild ride, playing Bradley in just about any event brings plenty of boom-or-bust potential. He has started the season strong with a top-10 at the ZOZO in the fall and a T12 at the Sony Open in Hawaii. He has only played one event stateside this season, and he finished T65 at The Farmers Insurance Open two weeks ago. In that showing gained strokes tee-to-green but struggled with his putter.
If he can get his putter back on track at TPC Scottsdale, he should be able to continue his strong results on this course. He has made the cut in six of the past seven seasons at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and he seems to thrive on the energy from the crowd. As a past major champion, he’s not going to be thrown by the big stage and usually rises to the occasion.
Adam Hadwin, $6,900
Hadwin has played the weekend at this tournament in six straight events and posted a pair of top-20 finishes at the beginning of that run. Last season, he was sharp off the tee and on the green, but uncharacteristically struggled on his approach shots.
The 34-year-old Canadian comes into this week in nice form with his irons after gaining 3.5 shots on approach last week at Pebble Beach en route to a T16. He has made the cut in seven of his past eight events and posted three top-25 finishes during that stretch highlighted by a T6 at the Shriners, which is held at TPC Summerlin, a comp for this course due to its desert setting and Par-71 setup.
Top 4 Punt Plays
Doug Ghim, $6,600
Ghim will be playing this tournament for the first time in his career, but his profile should fit the course well. He’s an approach specialist with good work around the green but usually ends up losing strokes putting. He has been rolling the ball a little better this season, though, and gained strokes putting in his most recent event at the Farmers Insurance Open Express two weeks ago.
Ghim has made the cut in seven straight cuts this season but has yet to crack the top 25. If he can keep his putter going and dial in his irons as usual, Ghim should be able to play another weekend and end up a great punt play at barely over $6,500.
Matthew NeSmith, $6,600
Kramer Hickok, $6,400
Hank Lebioda, $6,200