What is Fantasy 4's SP Spotlight?
An explanation of what the daily SP Spotlight will including and why it matters for your DFS fantasy baseball contests
Fantasy baseball is hopefully not too far away if the MLB and MLBPA can find a way to work out their differences and get the season started. Fantasy baseball is my No. 1 favorite fantasy sport to play and cover, and I’m extremely excited to be able to bring you coverage throughout the upcoming season. While I’m still working out all the details and would love to get your feedback, one piece that I’m excited to launch is the SP Spotlight.
This post will stay up throughout the season and explain the basics of this series of posts to cut down on the repetition of introductory content in every post.
As is the theme here at Fantasy 4, the SP Spotlight will be a list of four fantasy players who are key for you to know coming into a DFS slate. Each post will highlight four starting pitchers: one ace to attack, one ace to avoid, a midrange monster and a bargain buy. I’ll lay out what each category entails below and what you can expect to find in each spot.
At Fantasy 4, I use DraftKings scoring (DKFP) and salaries as a baseline for tracking results and return on investment. You can find the details for DraftKings MLB Classic scoring on DraftKings’ site to see how it compares to your formats.
Why starting pitching matters most
There is no more important position in DFS fantasy baseball than starting pitching. Most DFS formats allow each lineup to contain a pair of starting pitchers, and usually, they cost much more than hitters. Every once in a while, there will be some sluggers whose salary pulls even with some cheap pitchers, but in most cases, your two most expensive investments will be your two starting pitchers. It isn’t just the fact that starting pitching is a huge part of your salary cap that makes it important, though.
The main reason your two SP spots matter most is the remarkable variability of SP results. If you get a strong start, you might get as many as 30 DKFP but a bad outing could actually lose you 20 DKFP. In standard DFS formats, strikeouts and caught stealing don’t count against hitters, meaning the worst any batter can do is just get you a zero. While it can be tough to overcome a zero, it’s nothing compared to losing 20 DKFP, which can totally neutralize one of the biggest days from your hitters.
For almost all DFS, the key is prioritizing pitchers who pile up strikeouts. Going deep into games is also important, but getting innings without strikeouts doesn’t pay off. For example, on Aug. 25 last year, Robbie Ray and Lucas Giolito faced off in Chicago. Both had solid outings and earned a no-decision after allowing one run on five hits. While Giolito had a solid 19.9 DKFP, Ray almost doubled him up with 37.55 DKFP since he had 14 strikeouts compared to just six for Giolito.
Even when pitchers are getting knocked around, strikeouts can mitigate the damage. Triston McKenzie illustrated that in a start on May 31 in which he allowed five runs in 5 1/3 innings to the White Sox but still managed to produce 18.4 DKFP since he had 10 strikeouts. On the other extreme, Pablo Lopez had a start where he threw seven shutout innings but only had two strikeouts so managed 14.95 DKFP. Pitchers that pitch to contact almost have to get the win bonus, or it’s very difficult for them to return value.
As a general rule, I’d much rather go with a high-strikeout potential SP who sometimes has rough outings than a low-strikeout-rate SP who may be more consistent from start to start.
The 4 Picks to Expect
Each of my SP Spotlights will include four highlights starting with an Ace to Attack. This is the pitcher that I think has the best chance to lead the day in SP scoring, regardless of price. Expect this to be a lot of pitchers with high strike-out rates in this spot. The other key factor to consider here is the opponent, since facing a soft lineup or one that strikes out a lot can lead to huge fantasy points.
In another pick from near the top of the salary structure, I’ll also highlight an Ace to Avoid. Obviously, if the pitcher is highly-priced, there’s going to be some upside to playing them, but the pitcher in this slot also has some red flags. Usually, that means a matchup that isn’t the best for one reason or another or some questionable recent form. Even the very best pitchers usually go through a rough patch, and this is where I’ll give you one player I’ll be fading.
The Midlevel Monster pick is an SP in a spot that I think has the potential to outproduce his salary in the midtier. I’ll usually eliminate the top third of the SP on the slate and try to find an option in the middle third that stands out due to upside. As detailed above, I’ll be looking for strikeout upside and favorable matchups since I’d rather take on some ERA risk to gain a higher ceiling. Pitchers with a good K/9 rate and limited hard-hit rate can sometimes be available in this salary range if they’ve run into some below-average luck on BABIP or been in some below-average matchups.
The final pick in each SP Spotlight is my personal favorite. If you’re not new to Fantasy 4, you know how much I love to research and dig through the bargain bin to find hidden gems. For the Bargain to Buy, I’ll give you the cheapest SP I think makes sense to utilize in regular contests. Going with at least one SP from the bottom third of the salary list frees you up to buy the bats you want and usually pair them with an Ace of your choosing as well.
There are even some slates during the season where there are multiple bargain SPs that allow you to stock up your lineup with all the power you want and still have pitching upside. Like at all the other pitching spots, I’ll favor pitchers that have high strikeout potential. A lot of times these may be pitchers that have less of a track record or could be making their MLB debut. I love diving in to see if there are options that make sense in the cheap end of the salary pool, and I’ll track throughout the year how my picks do on offering return on investment at each level, including the DKFP/$ rate of my highlighted cheap pitcher. I’ll do my best to keep it to just one pick in this spot per day, but I may bend the rules and include two bargains if they both stand out.
How to use the picks
Obviously, your picks at SP and at all your positions should totally be yours, but if you’re looking for a place to start your shopping, I hope you’ll find these three options to chase and one to fade a good place to start.
I’ll be using DraftKings as my standard, but these picks should also be strong plays on any DFS site with slight adjustments for salary variances. If you’re also playing season-long fantasy baseball (because of course you are!), the bargain plays will almost always be strong streaming options if available in your league.
If you have any questions about this feature or anything at Fantasy 4, you can find me @ZT_Sports on Twitter or respond in the comments at the bottom of the page.
Tomorrow, my plan is to lay out what to expect from Fantasy 4’s batting picks each day, so stay tuned. If you’re like me and can’t wait for basketball to come back, you can also check out my Waiver Wire targets which ran on Sunday on DraftKings Playbook.